Casa Pia vs Benfica prediction
Tue 18 Aug 2026, 00:45 IST · Round 2 · Data: OK
Casa Pia vs Benfica Primeira Liga prediction for Tue 18 Aug 2026,. Underlying 1X2 lean is Benfica (14% home / 22% draw / 63% away). Model markets — Total Goals: Over 2.5 (93%); Corners: Benfica (more corners) (99%). In their last 5 meetings, Casa Pia have won 1, Benfica have won 2, with 2 draws. Educational ML estimate — not betting advice.
Prediction Insights
Model-derived leans only — not betting advice.
Underlying 1X2 probabilities
Casa Pia win: 14.4%
Draw: 22.5%
Benfica win: 63.1%
Highest 1X2 model score: Benfica. The actionable result pick, if one qualifies, is labelled Safer Result above.
Both Teams to Score
Yes
Probability of Yes: 50.8%
Total Goals
Over 2.5
Probability of Over 2.5: 93.2%
Corners
Expected total corners: 9.65
More corners: Benfica (0.9% home / 99.1% away)
Live lineup data unavailable for this fixture.
Match context (form & H2H)
Casa Pia head into this match having won 1, drawn 1, and lost 3 of their last 5 Primeira Liga games (LLLWD), scoring 3 and conceding 5 over that stretch.
Benfica head into this match having won 3, drawn 2, and lost 0 of their last 5 Primeira Liga games (WWDDW), scoring 13 and conceding 7 over that stretch.
In their last 5 meetings, Casa Pia have won 1, Benfica have won 2, with 2 draws -- the most recent finished Casa Pia 1-1 Benfica.
Form and H2H come from this league's historical match data — the same training inputs, not a separate estimate.
Match Analysis
Scout-style context from squad stats, match history, and weather. It does not change the machine-learning probabilities shown below.
Players mapped to team form
Casa Pia's attacking load sits mainly with limited squad data — while recent team form averages 0.6 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
Benfica's attacking load sits mainly with limited squad data — while recent team form averages 2.6 scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
Home / away ground
Casa Pia at home recently: 2W 4D 2L (1.25 pts/game), scoring 8 and conceding 8.
Benfica on the road recently: 5W 3D 0L (2.25 pts/game).
Measured home advantage for Casa Pia: +0.09 points vs neutral baseline.
Fair play
Casa Pia fair-play pulse: 2.3 yellows/game, 16.8 fouls/game over last 10.
Benfica: 1.6 yellows/game over last 10.
Underdog edge
Elo gap ~437 favors Benfica. In similar historical gaps, the underdog (Casa Pia) won outright 6% of the time (sample 319) — underdog edge is real but uncommon.
Attack & counter
Casa Pia recent profile: balanced attack/defence (0.6 GF / 1.0 GA per game, shot quality ~6.5).
Benfica: territorial / shot-volume attacking (2.6 GF / 1.4 GA).
Shot quality treats off-target shots as half an on-target shot.
Scout verdict
Scout synthesis: Casa Pia at home: 2W-4D-2L in last 8; Benfica away: 5W-3D-0L in last 8; similar Elo gaps historically see the underdog win outright ~6% of the time (n=319); Benfica profile leans territorial attack. Model lean (unchanged by this scout note): Benfica.